Sushi Money 寿司的钱

Mortgage fraud arrests?按揭诈骗逮捕？ The news says hundreds swept up in mortgage fraud . 消息说， 数百名席卷在按揭诈骗 。 Hundreds?数百名？ Wow..哇.. amazing but a little late, huh?惊人的，但有点晚，许？ Well in a difficult economy it looks like the lawyers will have plenty of business.以及在一个困难的经济，它看起来像律师将有足够的业务。

While it looks like the Feds are finally announcing results of their investigations, it’s not just the mortgage brokers who are being looked at. Hedge funds are also now prime targets for investigation as to their role in the subprime mess.而它看起来像联邦调查局是最后公布的结果，他们的调查，它不只是按揭经纪谁正在研究。 对冲基金现在也主要调查对象 ，以他们的作用，在次级一塌糊涂。 And two former Bear Stearns executives were arrested this morning.和前两熊士坦高管被拘捕 ，今天上午。 Seems at least one of these gentlemen may have been secretly withdrawing his own money from a failing hedge fund while smiling to other investors about how well they were doing.看来，至少有一个，这些嘉宾可能已被秘密撤回自己的钱从一个失败的对冲基金，而面带微笑向其他投资者如何，以及他们在干什么。

After touring southern California last week it was amazing to see how prices have come down.后参观南加州上周这是了不起的，看看如何价格已经回落。 Builders are still building, but are also scrambling to close deals on various houses and subdivisions.建设者仍在建设，但也纷纷关闭交易的各种房屋和区分。 I even saw one sign: “Any Offer Accepted.” They probably left out the word reasonable.我什至看到了一个迹象： “任何提供接受”他们可能遗漏的词合理的。

I talked with several people who were seeing 40% reductions in the valuations of their homes.我所说的与几个人谁看到40 ％减少，在估价自己的家园。 They sighed acknowledging that in addition to supply and demand, it was primarily an income qualification issue for how much of a home people can really afford.他们感慨地承认说，除了供给和需求，这主要是收入的资格问题，有多少家的人真的可以负担得起的。 Reality was coming home to roost.现实是未来在家中称雄。

But during the hey day of the real estate boom, it wasn’t just the mortgage brokers leaning towards fraud.但在喂天的房地产热潮，这不仅仅是按揭经纪倾向欺诈行为。 Many speculators and home buyers fudged their applications with exotic loans just to buy a property.许多炒家及置业人士的fudged他们的申请与异国情调的贷款刚刚购买的财产。 Of course the speculation and application fraud is mostly history as more stringent mortgage qualification standards are now in place.当然，投机和应用欺诈大多是历史更严格的抵押贷款的资格标准，现在的地方。 But amazingly enough, mortgage fraud is still a problem across the nation.但令人惊讶的还不够，按揭诈骗仍是一个问题，在全国范围内。

I wonder if there’s any fraud in the oil or refining industry?我不知道如果有任何欺诈行为，在石油或炼油工业的？ Well maybe fraud is a bit strong of a word, but how about rampant oil industry speculation ?以及，也许欺诈是一种位强一个词，但如何猖獗，石油工业的投机活动 ？

“As business and consumers consider the implications for them of crude oil selling at US$130-plus per barrel, they should bear in mind that, at a conservative calculation, at least 60% of that price comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York Nymex futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or over-the-counter trading to avoid scrutiny.” “作为企业和消费者考虑的影响，为他们的原油销售，在美国130元加至每桶，他们应紧记，在一个保守的计算，至少有60 ％的价格来自不受管制的期货投机的对冲基金，银行和金融集团利用伦敦冰期货和纽约纽约商业交易所的期货交易所和不受控制的跨银行或以上- -柜台交易，以避免在审议“ 。

We’ve been through the dot.com boom and the real estate boom.我们已经通过dot.com热潮和房地产热潮。 If this is the oil and gas boom, does that mean prices will come down later too?如果是这样的石油和天然气的繁荣，这是否意味着价格会回落，后来呢？ More importantly, what’s the next boom?更重要的是，什么样的未来繁荣？ I’d like to get in on that one…我想获得在对一…

The market is soaring today and seems to like the recent aggressive action by the Federal Reserve, and that they may drop the Fed Funds rate by a full point or more today.  I sensed a change by several commentators that instead of the Fed being behind the credit crisis the past few months, they are actually now way in front leading the charge to solve the financial problems.   Which is good.  Maybe it’s not all doom and gloom .市场飙升，今天似乎像最近的侵略行动是由美国联邦储备委员会，他们可能下降，联邦基金利率由一名全职点或以上的今天，我感受到的变化是由若干评论家，而非美联储正在背后信用危机过去几个月来，他们其实是现在的方式接待领导负责，以解决财政问题。这是好的。也许这是不是所有的厄运和忧愁 。  Although there’s still a lot of disagreement about the Fed’s course of action to solve these problems over the long term.虽然有的，仍然有很多分歧，关于美联储的行动过程，以解决这些问题的长远目标。

But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is well-versed in Depression era financial lessons, and did a great deal of academic research on the same.  So he has studied the causes and influences of the financial problems of the 1930’s and is working to prevent the same thing from happening now.但美联储主席贝南克是非常精通，在抑郁症的时代，金融的经验教训，并做了大量的学术研究就同一，所以他已研究过的原因和影响的财政问题1930年的，是工作，以防止同样的事情发生。

Apparently the banking and lending industries have just about shut down over the past weeks as everyone is afraid of  doing business with another company that may go bankrupt.  Some of those fears have eased today after Lehman Brothers ( LEH ) and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) both reported earnings that were not quite as bad as many have thought, with higher estimates going forward.显然，银行和贷款行业刚才关于关闭在过去几个星期，大家都怕做生意与另一家公司可能走向破产。一些人的担忧缓解后的今天李曼兄弟证券（ LEH ）和高盛证券（ GS ）财报被认为是不相当恶劣 ，许多有思想，具有较高的估计向前迈进。

That’s all the market really wants right now… clarity for the road ahead.  And with today’s Fed rate cut, as well as earnings announcements over the next few weeks, we may have a lot more of it.   Still going to be pretty volatile, but I honestly think we’re starting to put the worst of this behind us.这是所有市场真的想现在…清晰，在前进的道路上，并与今天的美联储降息，以及盈余报告在接下来的数周，我们可能有很多更多。仍然要漂亮的挥发，但老实说，我认为我们已经开始把最坏的，这背后的我们。

“What?!” I can hear a lot of folks saying…  because it just doesn’t seem that way right now.  There’s lots of fear and near-panic in some sectors, and with housing still down and oil and commodities through the roof a lot of folks are worried. “什么？ ！ ”我能够听到了很多的乡亲说… …因为它只是似乎没有这样的权利，现在有很多的恐惧和近恐慌，在某些行业，并与房屋仍然下跌，石油和商品通过屋顶上有很多乡亲都担心。

But this isn’t the Great Depression .   Unemployment right now is pretty strong, although that doesn’t mean anything if you’ve lost your job recently.  I wish those of you the best if you’re looking for work.  Many folks are rightly concerned about where their money is and if it’s safe.  For money you can’t afford to lose- it should be in FDIC insured bank and money market accounts.但是， 这不是经济大萧条 ，失业的权利，现在是相当的强烈，虽然这并不意味着什么如果您失去您的工作，最近，我想这些您最好的，如果您正在寻找工作，很多乡亲都正确地关心他们的钱是，如果它的安全。钱，你不能失去-它应当在联邦存款保险公司保险的银行和货币市场帐户。

What if you’re worried about your portfolio?  Make no bones about it, I’ma long term investor with a 10 year horizon investing for retirement.   The LA Times has a good Q&A article that tells Investors to Take Deep Breath Amid the Storm .I just think it’s not that bad, and it’s not going to get much worse.如果您担心你的投资组合呢？没有骨头，约它，我是长期投资者与10 年投资的视野，为退休。洛杉矶时报还具有良好的问答A文章告诉投资者采取深呼吸，中风暴我只是认为，这并不是说不好，这不是会得到更差。 It’s like the negative press and commentary has reached a crescendo, and just when everybody finally “buys in” to the storyline about how bad it is, the market’s going to turn.它的一样，负面新闻和评论达到了一个渐强，只是当大家终于“买”来的故事有关如何坏，这是，市场的去把。

Somewhere there’s going to be a guy on a street corner with a sign… ‘THE WORLD’S GOING TO END!” and he’ll be standing there by himself looking around wondering where everybody went.   Back to work my friend, trying to make their lives better.某地有要一个人在一个街角落的迹象… … '世界的去年底！ “ ，他会站在那里，由他环顾怀疑的地方，大家去。回到工作，我的朋友，试图为了让生活更美好。

Some pros even see the markets headed higher by the end of 2008 .   That’s the camp I’m sitting in.  I remember the recession of ‘90-’91 timeframe.  Many politicians and folks running for election cried that it was the worst economy in 50 years.  And then it picked right up again the following year, leading to a huge run of growth through the 1990’s.  Is it different this time?一些利弊，甚至看不到市场为首的更高，到2008年底 ，这是该难民营，我坐在英寸我记得90年代的经济衰退- '91的时间内，许多政界人士和乡亲竞选哭了，这是最坏的经济在50年。然后挑选的权利，再下一年，导致了巨大的运行增长，通过1990年的，是不同的这个时候？ I doubt it.我对此表示怀疑。

We’re in an election year right?  One side is going to gnash their teeth and cry about every aspect of the economy. Lately they have good reason to unfortunately.  I sure wish some of these folks would talk about what’s good in the nation and the economy once in a while, instead of everything wrong with it.  You don’t lead by shrill complaint… you lead through inspiration.  Probably why Sen. Obama attracts a lot of folks?   But one of these days the markets will turn around with conviction (today?) when the news is not quite as bad as before.   Smart money is even buying strategically right now.我们正处在一个选举年，对不对？一方是去gnash他们的牙齿和哭，大约每方面的经济。最近，他们有很好的理由，可惜，我肯定想一些这些乡亲会谈论什么的好，在国家和经济一旦在了一阵子，而不是一切都错。你不带头尖锐的投诉… …你带头通过的灵感。大概为什么参议员奥巴马吸引了很多的乡亲？之一，但这些天来，市场将周围的信念（今日？ ）当新闻是不太坏，作为前。聪明的钱，甚至是购买的权利，现在的战略。

“But what about the dollar?” I hear others say.  Well, let’s just say there’sa few companies here at home that really benefit from a low dollar.  But it’s too low right now, and is part of the problem with higher oil prices.  Overall however, the dollar’s going to rebound over time- just watch and see.  I wouldn’t bet against Uncle Sam any time soon.  All the press about this or that country shunning dollars. “但什么美元？ ”我听到别人说，那么，让我们只说有几家公司在这里说，在家里真正造福从低美元，但它的太低，现在是部分的问题与油价高企，整体不过，美元的持续回升，随着时间的推移，只要观赏，看看，我不会打赌，对山姆大叔任何时间，尽快所有新闻界这个或那个国家的回避美元。 Hogwash.  Wait until the least crisis in their own country or region- guess where the money will flock to?   Right back here…  and we’ll step up to the plate and do what we’ve always done.  We’ll help them get through it too.泔水。等到危机，至少在他们自己的国家或地区的猜测那里有钱将涌入？有权回到这里… …我们将加紧向板和做什么我们一直这样做，我们会帮助他们获得通过它太。

Well it seems I’m too much of an optimist lately, especially in light of the near panic we’re seeing on Wall Street, and how Bear Stearns is struggling to avoid a “run-on-the-bank” .以及似乎我太多的是一个乐观主义者，最近，尤其是考虑到近恐慌，我们所看到的对华尔街，以及如何贝尔斯登是挣扎，以避免“运行-对- -银行” 。 After denying rumors all week about potential liquidity problems, Bear Stearns had to cry uncle and ask for help.之后，否认所有的传闻周左右的潜在的流动资金问题，此前熊仕坦哭叔叔和寻求帮助。 Part of the problem is that after many rumors of insolvency and a rapidly declining stock price, they indeed faced liquidity problems after customers wanted their money back in droves.部分问题是，经过多次的传闻破产和迅速下降，股票价格，他们确实面临着流动资金问题后，客户希望他们的钱早在成群结队。

It’s hard to understand how Wall Street traders and execs who make millions of dollars in salary and bonuses can lose so much money over time and the Fed bails them out ?它的努力去了解如何华尔街的商人和官员谁，使数百万美元的薪金及花红可以失去那么多钱随着时间的推移和美联储bails出来 ？ Yes, there’s lots of money involved and the Fed doesn’t want this to spread.是的，有很多钱，涉及的项目及美联储不希望这蔓延。 But can they save everyone?但他们可以节省大家呢？ Do all the banks and institutions that put themselves in this situation deserve a taxpayer bailout?这样做的所有银行和机构认为，把自己在这种情况下，值得纳税人的救助？

The government is going to spend billions to bail out these institutions, but Mr. John or Mrs. Sally Q. Public has to face a myriad of economic challenges without any help at all?政府要花费数十亿美元的保释出这些机构，但约翰先生或夫人莎莉问：市民要面对无数的经济挑战，没有任何帮助，在所有？ Oh… wait, we’re having our bailout.哦…等待，我们遇到了我们的救助。 It’s called the Tax Rebate .它的所谓的退税 。

I’ma fairly conservative guy with strong beliefs in free market capitalism.我是相当保守的家伙，强烈的信念，在自由市场的资本主义。 Yet it sure doesn’t seem like it’s working when the government’s bailing out the institutional folks who developed risky derivative financial products that have now blown up in their faces.但它肯定似乎并不喜欢的工作时，政府的救助体制的乡亲谁开发风险的衍生金融产品，现在已经炸毁了，在他们脸上。 But Bear Stearns is Too Big to Fail ?但熊仕坦实在太大失败 ？ Maybe so.也许如此。

What happens if it’s just not enough?发生什么事，如果它的正义不是足够？ Who bails out the US government?谁bails指出美国政府呢？ As the US dollar continues to lose value , we simply can’t buy the same amout of “stuff” with it of course. 由于美元继续失去价值 ，我们实在不能购买相同的amout “东西”与它当然。 It’s getting pretty tough on consumers out there.它变得相当强硬，对消费者有。

I reached a “pain-at-the-pump” first today spending $49.00 filling up half of my car’s gas tank. i达成了“疼痛- - -泵”第一，今天的开支$ 49.00填补一半的我的汽车的油箱。 If it ever costs me $100 to fill the tank, and we’re pretty close right now, I’m going to park the dang thing.如果它的成本我100元，以填补坦克，和我们非常接近的权利，现在，我要去公园党的事。 At least more often.至少更经常地。 But fuel prices continue to rise and grocery, aka commodity, prices will rise further as well it appears.但燃料价格继续上升，杂货，又名商品，价格将进一步上升，以及它出现的。

When you have mass casualties, the rule of the day is triage.当您有大量人员伤亡，法治的一天是分流。 Save who can be saved, and say a prayer for the rest.拯救谁可以被保存，并且说祈祷，为的休息。 Let’s hope we’re not there yet.让我们希望我们还没做到。 But at some point the Fed’s going to have to conduct triage.但在某个时刻，美联储的去要进行分流。 Are they simply delaying the inevitable?他们只是拖延的必然？ I’m still hoping US consumers can be saved.我仍然希望美国的消费者可以节省。 All this and the majority in Congress want to raise taxes ?这一切，和大多数在国会要加税 ？ Now that’ll go over well.现在可以走。

But I’m still an optimist… I think the government does have a plan.但我仍然是一个乐观主义者…我觉得政府是否有计划。 The dollar will be supported, the credit crunch will fade over time, housing will bottom and rebound, prices will stabilize, the Bush tax cuts will be extended, inflation will remain low and markets will rally.美元将得到支持，信贷紧缩将淡出随着时间的推移，房屋的底部及反弹，价格将趋稳定，布什减税计划将延长，通货膨胀率将维持低和市场将反弹。 That’s the rumor anyway.说的传闻，无论如何。

The last few months can really make investing seem like a losing proposition.过去几个月中能真正作出投资，似乎像一个失去主张。 While reading the message boards for a particular stock today I saw that one gent asked for honest advice about selling versus hanging in there on a stock that was dropping day after day.虽然读的留言版，为某一特定的股票今天，我看到一根特要求诚实的意见，关于出售银两挂在那里的股票，这是下降日复一日。 He was down over 50% in the last two months.他则下跌超过百分之五十在过去两个月。 The reply:答复：

“Well, look at it this way. “好，这样看。 One insider alone owns 20 million shares and isn’t selling!一内幕，仅拥有20000000股和不销售！ He has seen his portfolio drop close to 1.5 billion in the last 3 months.他看到了他的投资组合下跌接近15.0亿，在过去3个月。 If someone tells you they would give you 50 cents on the dollar for your home would you give it to him?如果有人告诉你他们会为您提供了50美分，对美元汇率为您的首页将你给他？ The only difference is that you get to see a quote on your stock.唯一的区别是，你要想看到的报价，您的股票。 Sit back and be an investor…”坐在回和投资者… … “

Interesting analogy, and it may be very good advice.有趣的比喻，它可能会是非常好的意见。 Or it may not.或者它也可能不会。 Personally, my home isn’t an investment , and I don’t “live in my stocks” (even if it feels like it sometimes).我个人来说， 我家是不是一种投资 ，和我不“住在我的库存” （即使感觉就像它有时） 。 What really matters is the context of that “investor’s” life and investing situation.什么是真正的事项的背景下， “投资者的”生活和投资情况。 All things being equal, if he doesn’t need the money in the next 5-10 years, and he’s chosen a solid, profitable company that’s just out of favor right now, and he’s okay with sitting on it for the long term, then yes- maybe he should stop checking his stock quotes every day and just ride out this downturn.所有事情都是一样的，如果他并不需要钱，在未来5-10年，他的选择了坚实的，有利可图的公司，大家只是出于主张的权利，现在，和他的好与会议上，它为长远，然后是-也许他应停止检查他的股票行情每天都在和刚刚渡过这个低迷。

But maybe he “invested” money that he really needs over the short term.但也许他“投资”钱，他实在有需要在短期内。 Maybe he’s so worried because he has been making short-term bets with money he doesn’t have.也许他的担心，因为他一直使短期的投注与金钱，他不有。 Maybe he really shouldn’t be investing in growth stocks without professional advice because he simply doesn’t have enough knowledge.也许他真的不应该投资于成长型股票，没有专业意见，因为他根本没有足够的知识。 Maybe his risk tolerance just isn’t suited for investing in stocks at this point and he worries too much to sleep well at night.也许他的风险承受力刚是不适合投资于股票，在这一点上，他担心太多的睡眠，以及在夜间进行。 Maybe, maybe, maybe…也许，也许，也许…

You’ve got to decide where you stand.你要决定在哪里，你的立场。 And for how long.和多久。 Sometimes selling is the only thing that brings your sanity back.有时销售是唯一的一件事，让您的理智回。 Even if it is the wrong decision.即使它是错误的决定。 But sometimes you’ve got to say “What the hell…” and just leave things be for a year or two.但有时你要说“什么地狱… … ”和刚刚离开的东西，应为一年或两年。

Most of the time I try to “sit back and be an investor.” Sometimes it’s pretty damn hard to do.大部分的时间我尝试“静坐回和一个投资者， ”有时，它的相当可恶很难做到。

It strikes me that much of the market turmoil in recent weeks is based on fear… and maybe for reasons that have nothing to do with 99% of the investing and working public.  In large measure, so much of the credit, lending and hedge fund crises have been created, expanded and literally blown-up by the banks and investing institutions who designed and packaged their gourmet derivative specialties.  Yesterday we heard rumors of more hedge fund problems and that affected the financial markets as Wall Street finished a difficult week . This coming a couple days after rogue French trader “Mr.它罢工，我认为大部分的市场风暴，在最近几个星期，是基于恐惧… …并可能的原因，没有做与99 ％的投资和工作的市民。在很大程度上，这么多的信用额度，贷款和对冲基金危机已经建立，扩大和字面上吹-由银行和投资机构是谁设计和包装他们的美食衍生专科。昨天，我们听到的传闻更多的对冲基金的问题，并影响到金融市场， 华尔街结束一个困难的一周 ，这未来的一对夫妇天之后无赖法国Trader “号先生 Average” causes billions in losses for one of France’s largest banks…. which may also have caused or exacerbated the European market turmoil last week. How the heck does that happen anyway?!!! 平均“的原因十亿美元的损失之一，法国最大的银行… … 。这也可能造成或加剧欧洲市场的风暴上星期。 如何赫克没有这种情况发生呢？ ！

Among all the stock market and investing challenges we have faced lately, I started thinking about The Recession. The big scary word that everyone has been batting back and forth the past few months.  On an individual basis, do we really need to worry about a recession?  For many the answer might be… it depends.   It depends on if your job and income is something that may be affected by the recession of course.各股票市场和投资的挑战，我们面对最近，我开始思考经济衰退。大可怕的字眼，每个人都有被打回，并提出了在过去数月就个别情况的基础上，我们是否真的需要担心1经济衰退？很多答案可能是… …它取决于。这取决于如果您的工作和收入是一些可能会受经济衰退的过程中。

There are many arguments for if or why we may be in a recession, and why the financial markets have been so volatile.  Housing, improper lending practices and wholesale repackaging of lousy loans has brought on a crisis of confidence throughout the financial services industry.  Many consumers are mystified by the degree of angst and financial losses that have occured to the largest of financial and investment institutions around the world.  Perhaps not since the savings and loan crisis of the 1980’s have we seen this degree of financial loss, confusion, negligence, fear, public reaction, and pending government legislation.  But this crisis is still unfolding… what the Financial Times calls The start of the great unwinding :有很多论据，如果或为什么我们可能会在经济衰退，以及为什么金融市场已如此动荡不定。房屋，不当贷款的做法和批发的重新包装糟糕的贷款所带来的信心危机，整个金融服务业，许多消费者大惑不解由程度的焦虑和财政上的损失已经发生，以最大的金融和投资机构在世界各地，也许不是由于储蓄和贷款危机， 1980年的我们看到这种程度的财务损失，混乱，疏忽，恐惧，市民的反应，有待政府立法，但这场危机仍是展开… …什么金融时报呼吁开始的伟大出脱 ：

“If the US suffers a recession in 2008 or 2009 it will not be due to an industrial decline or an oil price shock. “如果美国遭受经济衰退在2008年或2009年，它不会因一个工业下降，或石油价格的冲击。 It will be a recession that began in the financial system. 这将是一个衰退的开始，在金融系统。 The response of the general public is confusion, tinged with horror, at how intangible finance can impinge on their daily lives. 响应广大市民的是混乱，带有恐怖，如何在无形的财务可以影响到他们的日常生活。 Even some bankers and traders must be struck by the chaos their business can unleash, and feel awe at just how powerful they have become.” 甚至一些银行家和贸易商必须深刻的混乱，他们的业务可以释放，并感到敬畏，仅仅有多么强大，他们已成为“ 。

It is staggering to consider the losses that have occurred in the financial services industries.  And staggering to consider the ramifications for how it affects the consumer, consumer spending, and a slowdown in business nationally.  We may indeed be facing a long recession with difficult times ahead.  And the way out may hinge on the ability of the consumer to continue to spend .  But many people have jobs that are fairly well protected, or entrenched perhaps.  Government and civil service workers don’t need to worry about the recession per se because they normally won’t lose their jobs.  Workers such as teachers and professors with tenure don’t normally have to worry about their jobs either.  Highly skilled workers such as doctors, lawyers and other professional workers proably have less to worry about as well- and in some cases may do more business in difficult economic times.   Some service industries actually do better during recessions:这是惊人的考虑损失都发生在金融服务行业。和惊人的考虑后果，它是如何影响消费，消费开支，放缓在全国的业务，我们确实可能面临长期衰退与艰难时刻未来与出路可能取决于对能力的消费者继续消费 ，但有很多人的工作相当很好的保护，或根深蒂固的，也许政府和公务员的工人不必担心经济衰退，本身因为他们一般是不会失去工作。工作者如教师和教授与任期通常不须担心自己的职位。高度熟练的工人，如医生，律师和其他专业工作者proably较少担心，以及-在某些情况下可能会做更多的业务在困难的经济时代。一些服务性行业，其实做的更好的经济衰退期间：

“Most of the service division’s 16 major industry groups decelerate in job growth or lose jobs during recessions. “大部分的服务部的16个主要行业组别的减速，在就业增长或失去工作，在经济衰退。 Five major groups are at least slightly countercyclical, however, gaining jobs faster in recessions than in normal times.” 五大集团目前至少有轻微反，然而，获得就业机会以更快的速度衰退比在正常时期“ 。

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review; Updated 2006资料来源：劳动统计局，劳动，每月检讨;更新2006年

So that shows that even during a recession there is opportunity.  But admittedly there are many workers with jobs that depend on the economic appetite of others, such as factory workers, sales personnel, mortgage and loan workers, etc, etc.  If you don’t have much education or skills, and you live in an economically depressed area… then the recession is something you feel first-hand.  But is it a national recession, or a global recession?   Are there really no jobs, or much fewer jobs?  Depending on the region you live in, maybe so.  But I know in the metro area that I live there are many, many jobs.  Maybe they’re not the same jobs that people either want or had before however, but there are jobs.  Service jobs are available everywhere of course. We’ve written about the service economy before, and where the jobs of the future will be .因此，这表明，即使在经济衰退有机会，但无可否认，有许多工人的工作依赖于经济的胃口其他国家，如工厂工人，销售人员，抵押贷款工人等，等如果您不吨有很大的教育或技能，和你住在一个经济贫困地区…那么，经济衰退是一些你觉得第一手的，但它是一个国家经济衰退，或全球经济衰退，是否真的没有就业机会，或少得多的工作？根据地区你住在，或许如此。但我知道，在都会区，我的生活是有很多，很多职位，也许它们不是同一职位的人不是想要或收到不过，但也有就业机会。服务工作是到处都可以，当然， 我们所撰写的有关服务业为主的经济体系之前，和那里的工作，未来将由 。

News and information now travels in seconds and minutes compared to days, weeks and months over prior decades.  We hear every tidbit of news and quotable thoughts by leading economists throughout the world.  We analyze data much more quickly, and the markets react by the minute to news….新闻和信息，现在旅行在秒和分钟相比，几天，几周和几个月内超过前几十年来，我们听到的每tidbit的新闻和quotable思想的经济学家领导整个世界，我们分析数据更快捷，市场反应由分钟新闻… … 。 the world really is much smaller, and as Edward M. Gomez from SFGate.com writes yesterday, the impacts of a recession in the US are far reaching .世界上真的是要小得多，并作为何承天米戈麦斯从sfgate.com写道：昨天，影响经济衰退，在美国是影响深远 。

“The news coming out of the World Economic Forum , which has gotten under way in Davos, Switzerland, is not good. “的消息，走出来的世界经济论坛上 ，得到了正在进行的在达沃斯，瑞士，是也不是好事。 At the international gathering of leading economists, high-level government policy-makers and captains of industry, the collective prediction is that a “full-blown, prolonged recession in [the United States] is now inescapable, with the rest of the world set to be dragged into a severe global slowdown despite [this week’s] emergency US interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve….” ( Times , UK) ” 在国际上收集领导经济学家，高级别政府的政策决策者和船长业，集体的预测是一个“全面吹，长期衰退， [美国]现在是负有不可推卸的，与世界其余地区设置向被拖进一个严峻的全球经济放慢，尽管[本星期的]紧急兴趣，美国减息，由美国联邦储备委员会… … “ （ 时报 ， 英国） ”

Those are pretty tough words- read the rest of Mr. Gomez’s thoughts and it’s downright scary.  Yet I think it’s important not to give into the fear and rhetoric that’s plastered across the headlines every day.  We can even read a list of 10 Reasons a Recession is Coming .   Uh… okay.这些都是相当强硬的话-阅读其余的Gomez先生的思想和它的彻头彻尾的可怕，但我认为它的重要性不给到恐惧和言论的贴满了全国各地的头条新闻，每天我们可以甚至宣读了一份名单， 10个原因是经济衰退的到来 。嗯…好。

But what does it mean to us?  Probably only something that each of us can answer.  At some point, in order to understand it, I need to make the economy more personal.  Rather than worry about it, or not understand it, I think we need to assess how it may affect us at home (and within our communities) and whether or not The Recession may really challenge our individual ability to have an income and support ourselves.  If the answer is “yes” then I think it’s time to take steps to protect ourselves.  I’m not talking about survivalist measures from a total doom and gloom perspective… or about panderers who would take advantage of consumer fear (Caution: That site is designed to take your money while providing common sense solutions that you already know!).但是，是什么意思呢？大概只有一些我们每个人都可以回答。在一些点，在以了解它，我需要使经济更加个人。而非担心呢，还是不明白，我觉得我们需要评估如何，可能会影响我们在家里（和我们的社区） ，以及是否或不衰退，可能真的挑战，我们的个人能力有一个收入和支持自己，如果答案是“是”的话，我认为它的时间采取步骤来保护自己，我不是在谈论生存的措施，从总厄运和忧愁的角度… …或约panderers谁将利用消费者的恐惧 （注意：该网站旨在采取你的钱，同时提供普通常识的解决方案您已经知道！ ） 。  But in the same way that emergency fund of savings can help us bridge difficult financial times, I think there are practical measures we can take to improve our lives while the economy regains traction over the course of the business cycle.  Because it is a business cycle, and eventually the economic slowdown will turn around while productivity increases.  This time it may take longer, or it may not… we just don’t know yet.但在相同的方式紧急基金的储蓄，可以帮助我们的桥梁财政困难的时代，我认为有切实可行的措施，我们可以采取以改善我们的生活的同时，经济恢复牵引以上的业务过程中循环。因为它是一个商业周期，最终经济增长放缓将扭转，而提高生产力，这一次它可能需要较长时间，也可能不会… …我们只是不知道，但。

But what practical measures can we take if we are really worried about The Recession ?  I think there’sa lot we can do.  Simple things like cutting back on spending, increasing savings, and reducing the use of debt.  Maybe start carpooling or becoming more efficient with transportation, eating healthier and exercising more to stay healthy (and reducing medical bills now and in the future!).   And even becoming more sustainable at home through growing a garden, reducing utility costs, etc.  Those are all simple, yet important things we can do in our own lives that will make a difference.  More importantly, we can develop our own human capital through gaining education, skills and experience in certain areas can provide an emergency skillset or knowledge-base that allows us to transition more quickly and efficiently to a new job or career if necessary. Job retraining has become a hot-button issue for politicians and economists lately, and rightly so.  I strongly believe we must support current and future workers because education and job retraining initiatives will provide strength to our nation from an economic and human capital perspective over the long-term . If our nation is to remain strong economically from a global perspective, then we must make sure to support our workers’ education and training development.但什么切实可行的措施，我们可以采取如果我们真的担心经济衰退呢？我觉得有很多我们可以做的。简单的事情，想回就削减开支，增加储蓄，减少使用的债务，也许开始合伙用车或变得更加高效率的交通，饮食和健康的行使更保持健康（和减少医疗法案在现在和将来！ ） ，甚至变得更加可持续在家中通过成长花园，调低公用事业费用等，这些都是简单，但重要的事情我们可以做的，在我们自己的生命，这将使有差别。更重要的是，我们可以发展我们自己的人力资本，通过获得教育，技能和经验，在某些方面可以提供一个紧急技能或知识基础，使我们能够更迅速地过渡和有效率提高到一个新的工作或事业，如果必要的。 就业再培训已成为一个热点问题的政治家和经济学家最近，这样做是正确的，我坚信我们必须支持当前和未来的工人，因为教育和职业再培训措施，将提供力量我们的国家从经济和人力资本的角度超过长远 ，如果我们的民族是保持强劲的经济从全球的角度来看，那么我们必须确保以支持我们的工人的教育和培训的发展。

We can also focus on those service industries that actually do well during a recession as shown above.  Can you say healthcare?! Maybe we need to stay in a career or industry longer than we want because it is a practical, secure solution for the time being.  And remember The Grapes of Wrath ?  A story of social and economic desperation with a major theme involving the mass movement of people from one region in the US to another simply because there was little work, income, or even food to support them.  A stark illustration perhaps, but I don’t think it’s out of the ordinary to consider moving from one geograhpic region to another if a downturn in employment and opportunity will really affect quality of life and income needs.  I have a succinct opinion on the matter:我们也可以侧重于那些服务行业，其实这样做，以及在经济衰退如上所示，你能说， 医护人员吗！也许我们需要留在一个职业或行业的时间比我们希望，因为它是一个现实的，安全的解决方案为时间。和记愤怒的葡萄 ？一个故事，社会和经济的绝望与一个重大主题，涉及群众运动的人从一个地区在美国的另一只因为有很少的工作，收入，或什至食品，以支持他们。一个鲜明的例证，也许，但我不认为这是出于一般考虑从一geograhpic地区到另一个如果不景气，就业和机会，真的会影响生活质量和收入的需要。我有一个简洁的意见此事：

If it takes change to make our lives better, then we better change! 如果需要改变，使我们的生活更美好，那么我们更好的改变！

I think back some years ago to a time in the early 1980’s.  I was finishing college and totally engrossed in school and personal activities.  College has always been a time for being totally engrossed in yourself and those pursuits you find most- well, interesting at the time… certainly a time of self-indulgence as well as growth.  But in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s the US economy was in really, really bad shape.  The worst unemployment since the Great Depression, and crazy high inflation (over 12%!) that had spiraled out of control.我想回到一些年前的一段时间，在20世纪80年代初，我是整理学院和完全engrossed在学校和个人的活动。学院一直是时间被完全engrossed在自己和那些追求您找到最井，有趣的时间…当然是一个时间的自我放纵，以及增长，但在20世纪70年代末和80年代初的美国经济是在真的，真的坏的形状。最坏的失业率自经济大萧条，和疯狂高通胀（超过12 ％ ！ ）表示，已螺旋失去控制。 Many Americans had lost confidence in themselves and the government.  It’s no wonder Ronald Reagan was elected President in a landslide vote with his optimism and strength.  Here’sa look at the long-term US unemployment rate from 1958 through 2008:许多美国人已失去信心，对自己和政府，它是不奇怪的里根当选总统后在某滑坡投票与他的乐观和力量。这里看长远，美国的失业率从1958年到2008年：

Source: Burea of Labor Statistics, 2008资料来源： burea劳工部统计，到2008年

But during that timeframe, honestly I was pretty clueless to the economic challenges the nation faced as a whole during those years.  Recession?  It really didn’t mean much to me.  I was a young college student with stars in my eyes.  Unemployment?  I didn’t really think about it… I found jobs waiting tables, being a lifeguard, working as an usher at sporting events, working in a chicken processing plant cleaning up chicken parts , and even working hard to get a scholarship.  Yes, I was a college student and didn’t have to worry about feeding a family and paying off much debt at the time.  But I think millions of other people do the same thing each day by scrambling to find work and opportunity.  Remember the recession of 1990-1991?  I don’t remember much about it.  I was working in a secure job and focused on getting things done.  I remember there was a housing downturn, and some challenges nationally, but we worked through it.  The booming 1990’s left those memories in the dust.但在这个时间内，老实说，我相当不懂，以经济的挑战，国家面临着作为一个整体在这些年中。衰退？真的没有多大的意义，我是一个年轻的大学生与星星在我的眼睛是雪亮的。失业？我并没有真的觉得它… …我找到工作，等待表，作为一个救生员，工作作为迎接在体育赛事， 工作在鸡加工厂清理鸡零件 ，甚至工作难以得到奖学金。不错，我是一个大学生，并没有担心吃饭的家庭和支付多少债务在时间，但我认为以百万计的其他人做同样的事情每天都在争先恐后地寻找工作机会。记得，经济衰退的1990年-1991 ？我不记得不多，所以我是工作在一个安全的工作，并着眼于取得的事情，我记得有一个房屋低迷，一些国家的挑战，但我们的工作，通过它。蓬勃发展， 1990年的离开这些回忆中的灰尘。

Here’s another view of the long term unemployment rate ( as a percent of the civilian labor force ) compared to past recessions from 1970 to 2005.  It does show how unemployment usually increases before and during and even after recessions.  But often we don’t even know we’re in a recession until months afterwards.  If we’re in a recession today, we probably won’t even know until at least June, after two consecutive quarters of a decline of real GDP… here’s how the NBER dates a recession , with a lot of other info.这里的另一种观点的长期失业率（ 作为一个％的民用劳动力 ）相比，过去经济衰退从1970年至2005年，它显示如何失业率通常增加之前和期间，甚至衰退后，但往往我们不要吨，即使知道，我们正处在经济衰退，直到数月后，如果我们正处在衰退的今天，我们可能会甚至不知道至少要等到6月之后，连续两季的下降，实质本地生产总值…这里的如何nber日期衰退 ，与很多其他信息。

Source: BLS the government is moving in the right direction , and a family of five may even see a sizable amount of tax rebate in a few months .  Our national attention is focused on doing more, and improving the economy.因此，回到我们原来的问题…这真的有那么重要，如果我们正处在一个经济衰退？我真的想问， “ 是否有人出来工作，真正关心你的电话吗 ？ ”我认为答案是不言自明。人失去工作，是出于工作，是寻找工作，并聘请职位是否有衰退持续了或没有，它发生的所有时间。在政治和经济衰退的问题，因为国家的经济引擎的放缓，和它也可能会造成长期持久的影响，国家和全球有真正的后果低迷的经济损失和支付能力的商品和服务的，所以是的，它可能是指人是要受到影响，在更大的方式，较少机会工作，业务将被质疑扩大，但对个人的水平，我认为你的电话是否真的不要紧，要紧的是我们正在做的事情单独和集体地，以改善机会和经济福祉，为我们自己和我们的家庭，我觉得政府现正朝着正确的方向发展 ， 一家五口，甚至可能看到一个可观的数额，退税在数个月内 ，我们的国家注意力集中于做更多的，并改善经济。 Writers and financial sites continue to answer questions that matter to consumers.作家和金融网站继续回答问题，这一问题给消费者。

All things being equal, I think it is better to stay informed than not be informed about national and world events.  For that reason it’s important to pay attention to the leading themes we face.  Certainly you can make and lose money by the influences that shape our economy, and being better informed can help one make better decisions… hence, staying prepared or even finding a better job.  But I think our being informed should be framed in the context of the challenges that really can affect us.  I spoke of it the other day- there are a lot of problems we all have that we should pay a lot more attention to, and that we can do something about.所有事情都是一样的，我觉得这是更好地留在知情的比没有了解国家和世界大事。出于这个原因很重要的要注意领导的主题，我们所面对的，当然你可以失去金钱的影响塑造我们的经济，正在更好地了解可以帮助一，做出更好的决策…因此，在下榻的准备，甚至找到一个更好的工作，但我觉得我们被告知应在框架的背景下面临的挑战真的可以影响我们，我发言它的另一天-有很多问题我们都认为，我们应该付出更多的注意，我们可以做一些工作。

Petrarch once said, “Where you are is of no moment… only what you are doing there.”  That’sa tough statement for the homeless guy living in the street to swallow.  But I think it speaks to an eternal truth that what we are doing with our lives at any given moment in time really does matter.  We can influence and direct our future, we can improve opportunity, we can help others who need assistance, and we can find a job whether or not we are in a recession. 彼得拉克曾经说过： “你身在何处是没有一刻…只有在做什么。 ”这是强硬的声明，为无家可归的家伙生活在街头海燕，但我认为它发言的一个永恒的真理，我们所这样做符合我们的生命，在任何特定的时刻，时间是否真的事情，我们可以直接影响和我们的未来，我们可以改善的机会，我们可以帮助他人，谁需要帮助，我们可以找到工作，是否或没有我们正处在一个经济衰退。

Trying to balance the perspective of the words you read each day with what is really important in your life can be a challenge.  For example, just thinking about the 5.4 million people that have died in Africa over the past decade is staggering.  And over the past year there’s been a developing crisis in Kenya where thousands more people face starvation and I can do little about that as well.  Bill Gates can however, and is pouring millions of dollars into helping small farmers in Africa .试图平衡的角度来看的话，你会阅读每一天什么是真正重要的在你的生活可能是一项挑战。举例来说，刚才思考5.4万人已死亡，在非洲在过去的十年中 ，实在令人啧啧称奇。及以上过去的一年有一个发展的危机在肯尼亚 成千上万更多的人面临饥饿和我能做的不多，由于良好。比尔盖茨可以然而，是浇注了数百万美元到帮助小农户在非洲 。

“If we are serious about ending extreme hunger and poverty around the world, we must be serious about transforming agriculture for small farmers — most of whom are women,” he said in a statement. “如果我们是认真的约截至极端贫困和饥饿世界各地，我们必须认真的态度转化为农业的小农-其中大部分是妇女， ”他在一份声明中说。 The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on Friday unveiled a package of new grants worth more than $300 million, nearly doubling its spending on agriculture. 该比尔和梅林达盖茨基金会上周五推出了一系列新的补助金，价值3亿多美元，几乎增加一倍，其对农业的支出。

There has always been strife and suffering throughout the world.  Usually we tune it out, right or wrong it’s hard to have an impact.  But we can have some impact, and make choices about where some of our money or time goes.  Places like Kiva and kiva和cafe in San Francisco spends $20,000 on a machine to brew a cup of coffee , how bad can it be out there?  Well, never underestimate the passions of a coffee aficianado, recession or no recession.  Personally I prefer Bill Gates’ approach to helping African coffee farmers.  Instead of spending $4 or $5 bucks on my own cup of coffee, maybe I can find a cheaper cup and have some left over for savings or a good cause.   Those are things I can do something about.   I think we’ll be okay, and there are a lot of things we can do to ease the challenges we may face ahead. Take care of yourself!此外，当一个咖啡馆在美国旧金山花费二点○万美元对一台机器冲泡一杯咖啡 ，如何坏，可它在那里？好，从来没有低估激情的一个咖啡aficianado ，经济衰退或没有经济衰退。亲自我喜欢比尔盖茨'的办法，帮助非洲咖啡的农民，而是花费4元或5元钱对我自己的一杯咖啡，也许我能找到一个便宜的世界杯和有一些遗留下来的储蓄或一个很好的事业，这些事情我可以做一些工作。我认为我们会好，有很多事情我们可以做的，以纾缓的挑战，我们可能要面对未来。照顾自己！

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It’s hard to pay attention to a stock market that opens several hundred points down and keeps plunging, only to recover most of the drop on breaking news of a 3/4 point Fed Funds Rate cut.  But it does get one’s attention.  If you’re not out of the stock market right now it’sa little late to start.  I’m still riding the tumultuous volatility, and holding on with a firm look toward the distant horizon.  One that I won’t reach for 10-15 years or more.  Besides, this is a pretty darn good time to invest for the long-term.  The average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is right around the historical average of 15.  That’s pretty fair valuation for a long-term investor.  Doesn’t mean there won’t be tough times ahead though- we face a lot of other challenges that a Fed Fund’s Rate cut may have little impact upon.它的努力，要注意股市打开几百点，下跌和不断下滑，只有收回大部分的下降，对突发新闻的1 3 / 4点，联邦基金利率削减。但它确实让一个人的注意。如果您不是出于股市的权利，现在有点晚开始，我还是骑的动荡波动，并举行了一个坚定的看向遥远的天际。之一，我不会为达到10-15年或更长时间。此外，这是一个漂亮的石坝的好时机投资为长期。平均普/ E比值为标准普尔500指数是正确的周围，历史平均水平15 。这是相当中肯的估价一个长远的投资者。并不意味着将不会有强硬的日子，虽然- 我们要面对很多其他的挑战 ，联邦基金的降息的可能有多大影响。

But lately the market reminds me of the Big Bad Wolf.但最近市场使我想起了大坏狼来了。  If you haven’t seen the 1933 Walt Disney short cartoon of the Three Little Pigs , it’s definitely worth it.  This 9 minute cartoon captured the nation’s attention during the Great Depression.   It’s a wonderful cartoon and musical combination that perhaps found resonance among the nation for the simple morals that hard work and planning ahead can protect you in the face of adversity.如果你有没有看到1933华特迪士尼卡通短期的三只小猪 ，这肯定是值得的。这九分钟漫画，抓获了国家的重视，在经济大萧条，这是一个精彩的卡通和音乐组合也许发现共振之间的民族，为简单的道德的辛勤工作和规划未来，可以保护你在面对逆境。

That’s something to consider as we save and invest.  The stock market’s recent volatility shows us that asset allocation and diversification provide a measure of strength over time.  When the market loses hundreds of points in a day however, it’s hard to find any shelter in the storm.  Yet these are, after all, moments in time.  Moments that can wreak havoc on a portfolio, no question.这是必须考虑的一些要点，因为我们储蓄和投资。股市最近的波动，向我们表明，资产分配和多样化提供一定程度的实力，随着时间的推移，当市场失去了数百个点在某一天，但它的强硬找到任何栖身在金融风暴，但这些毕竟，在时间的时刻。时刻，可以肆虐对投资组合，毫无疑问。 But for those who have time, hold on and keep investing steadily, these events will simply be a footnote.但对于那些谁有时间，对持有和继续投资稳步推进，这些事件将只是一个脚注。

Am I afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?  Not in the form of the stock market.  Right now I feel like I’m missing out actually… I’d love to have a little more funds to invest.  And honestly- there’s little I can do about it anyway, so I try not to let it get to me.我怕大坏狼来了？而不是在形式的股票市场。权利，现在我觉得像我失踪了，其实… …我喜欢有少许更多的资金投资。及诚实的-没有什么我可以做它无论如何，所以我尽量不让它得到我。  I don’t mean to minimize the financial losses and stress that anyone faces, especially for those close to retirement.  But I think there are a lot of other “wolves” out there to be afraid of that I can actually do something about- namely building up an emergency fund of cash, my health, our family well-being and what goes on around us each day.   And as for saving and investing for retirement?  I think with committment and disciplined patience, we can slowly build a growing, diversified portfolio in the form of dividend paying stocks, bonds, mutual funds and tax-advantaged accounts.  And maybe that ‘ole stock market wolf won’t bother us as much.   He’ll be back to be sure, but like “Practical Pig” I’m building a strong financial house.我不是指，以尽量减少经济损失，并强调任何人的面孔，特别是对那些接近退休，但我觉得有很多其他“狼群”的存在怕，我其实可以做一些工作-即建立一个紧急基金的现金，我的健康，我们的家庭幸福和什么下去，我们周围的每一天。至于储蓄与投资，为退休呢？我觉得与承诺和纪律部队的耐心，我们可以慢慢建立一个日益增长的，多元化投资组合的形式，股息支付股票，债券，互惠基金和免税的优势帐户。也许'的OLE股市狼来了，不会理会我们尽可能多的，他会杀回来可以肯定的是，但像“实际猪”我建立一个强大的金融内务。

Realistically, it’s hard to say how long or how severe the economic challenges we face will take to turn around.从实际出发，它的就很难说了多久，或有多严重的经济，我们面临的挑战将采取什么扭转。 All the people that are supposed to be doing something are working on measures that can point us in a stronger direction.  As  many economists have noted, the Fed’s action today is “ not an instant fix .”  But it’sa start, and they’ll probably lower rates again next week.  I’m curious to see what the President and Congress put together for a stimulus .  Whatever it is, they need to get it done.所有的人是为了做某件事的工作措施，可以点我们在一个更强的方向发展。由于许多经济学家指出，美联储今天的行动是“ 不即时修复 ” ，但它是开始，他们可能会降低利率再次下星期，我很好奇，看看有什么总统和国会放在一起，为刺激作用 。无论如何，他们需要获得这样做。

You know that line… “Opinions are like a$$holes, everybody has one!” That’s about the sentiment for a US recession next year.你知道线… … “的意见，像元元洞，每个人都有一！说： ”约的情绪，为美国经济衰退明年。 The “will we or won’t we” debate is reaching a peak… except of course for those who have already decided (Bill Gross of Pimco) that the US is in a recession right now . That’s not too far out for a call on the economy, because recessions can be very hard to figure out until the economy is already coming out the other side of the business cycle. “我们会或不会，我们”的辩论是达到高峰…除外，当然对于谁已经决定（草案毛额的pimco ） 说 ， 美国正处在一个经济衰退的权利，现在 ，这不是太远，为一呼吁对经济，因为经济衰退，可很难弄清楚，直到经济已经走出来的另一边，商业周期。 Often, the real beginning of a recession is only determined years after the fact.很多时候，真正开始衰退，只是确定了年后的事实。 So maybe Mr. Gross is right.因此，也许Gross先生是正确的。 A lot of other folks have entered the debate on both sides:很多其他的乡亲已经进入了辩论，双方：

• NO : Abby Joseph Cohen from Goldman Sachs says a recession in 2008 is not likely. 没有 ： 亚比约瑟夫科恩来自高盛证券表示，经济衰退在2008年，是不太可能。
• YES and NO : A December Reuters/Zogby poll says 43% of likely US voters expect a recession in 2008. 是的，并没有 ： 12月路透/佐格比民意调查说， 43 ％的美国选民可能预期经济衰退于2008年。
• MAYBE: Alan Greenspan recently modified his view of a recession from less than 50% to right at 50%. 也许： 格林斯潘最近修改的，他认为一个经济衰退，从不少于50 ％ ，以正确的50 ％ 。
• NO : Diana Furchtgott-Roth , former Chief Economist at the US Department of Labor thinks a recession not likely. 没有 ： furchtgott戴安娜-罗斯 ，前首席经济学家，在美国劳工部认为，经济衰退不太可能。
• YES : ABN AMRO Bank believes the US is entering a “viscious spiral” with a 75% chance of “plunging into a recession.” 是 ： ABN AMRO银行认为，美国正在进入一个“ viscious螺旋” ，以75 ％的机会“ ，陷入衰退的风险” 。
• MAYBE: State Street Bank is not on the record, but believes it “remarkable” if the US avoids a recession in 2008. 也许： 美国道富银行是不是就纪录，但认为它“显着”如果美国避免经济衰退于2008年。
• HELL YES! : Jim Rogers isn’t satisfied just to say the US is in a recession… he even thinks the Administration is lying! 地狱是的！ ： 吉姆罗杰斯是不是满意，只是说美国是在经济衰退…他甚至认为，政府当局在说谎！

Who knows… will we enter a recession?谁知道…我们会进入一个衰退？ If we do, I think it has a lot to do with psychology and the media.如果�