Mar 10 3月10

Looking for the Market Bottom 寻找市场底部

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It’s tough watching various stocks and portfolio holdings go negative over the course of several months.它的强硬观看各种股票和有价证券集团到负的过程中数月之久。 I seem to have lost my you-know-what the last few months, and I’m still trying to find it.我似乎失去了我为您知道是什么在过去几个月中,我仍试图找到它。 The Dow closed at the lowest point last week since 2006, about 16% down from the high last October, 2007.道琼工业指数收于最低点,上周以来, 2006年,约有16 %是从高,去年10月, 2007年。

Technically we’re still in a stock market correction and not a bear market.在技术上我们仍然在股市矫正,而不是熊市。 Are we reaching a stock market bottom yet?我们达成一个股市的底部仍未? I’d like to think so, but many folks think otherwise.我想这样的想法,但许多乡亲认为,否则。 But we’re starting to see more opinions that now is the time to Buy, Buy, Buy the heck out of the market .但我们正在开始看到更多的意见,现在是时间来买,买,买的Heck退出市场 I’m re-allocating some IRA funds to a more aggressive long-term strategy.我重新分配了一些爱尔兰共和军的资金,以更加积极的长远策略。 Slowly, but I think now is the time to think about it.慢慢地,但我认为现在是时候了去想它。 If we are nearing a bottom, we may stay there bottom feeding for quite a while.如果我们正在接近一个由下而上的,我们可能会留在底部的喂养相当长的一段时间。

Also have a ways to go before a lot of negative news is out, and the Fed will probably drop rates again on the 18th of March.也有一个方法,去之前,有很多负面消息是,美联储可能会下降,利率再次就3月18日。 I agree that We’re Nowhere Near a Real Estate Bottom , but real estate markets vary widely across the nation.我同意我们正在无处附近的房地产的底部 ,但房地产市场差别甚大全国。 If you’re in the market to buy a home- this could be a wonderful time.如果您在市场上购买一个家庭,这可能是一个美好的时间。 Just be prepared to be there a while.刚刚准备在那里一段时间。 We may also be paying more for gas at the pump for a while.我们也可能会付出更多的气体在泵了一段时间。 I’ve got a summer trip planned that keeps getting more expensive.我有自己的夏季之旅计划,不断越来越昂贵。 Hey, but that tax rebate will come in handy right?嘿,但退税能派上用场的权利?

Nothing like a down market to teach us about diversification.没有像一个下跌的市场,以教导我们约多样化。 For those with money on the sidelines there’s some strategic opportunities out there for long-term asset allocation.对于那些用金钱就在一旁有一些战略机遇,有长期资产配置。 Here’s an article that talks about how the PBGC (Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation) is now making a huge move into equities:这里的一篇文章认为,会谈有关如何联邦退休金保障公司(养恤金保证公司)现正作出了巨大的迁入股票:

“The federal corporation used to invest just 15 to 25 percent of its assets in stocks, with the rest in bonds and other fixed-income instruments. “联邦公司用于投资只有15到25 % ,其资产在股票,其余在债券及其他固定收益工具。 Now, it’s earmarking 45 percent into stocks, 45 percent into bonds, and the remaining 10 percent into “alternative” investments such as real estate and private equity.”现在,它的指定用途的45 %到股票,到45 %的债券,余下的10 % ,成为“另类”投资,如房地产和私人股本“ 。

So why is the PBGC doing this?那么,为何是联邦退休金保障公司这样做呢? Simply to earn a greater return over time than a large fixed income portfolio can generate.只是为了赚取更大的回报时间比一个大固定收入的投资组合可以产生。 And that’s because the PBGC doesn’t have enough assets to fund all the pension requirements currently on the books.和这是因为联邦退休金保障公司没有足够的资产,以基金的全部退休金的要求,目前在图书。

“The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation has adopted a new diversified investment policy to help ensure the federal insurance program can meet its long-term obligations to America’s retirees, PBGC Director Charles EF Millard announced today” “养恤金担保公司已通过了一项新的多元化的投资政策,以协助确保美国联邦保险计划能满足其长期义务americaâ € ™ s离退休人员,联邦退休金保障公司董事查尔斯外汇基金的米拉德今天宣布, ”

“One lesson is that stocks, even amid recent setbacks, remain one of the best ways to beat inflation over the long haul - something PBGC officers and most other pension experts recognize.” “一个教训是,股票,甚至在最近的挫折,仍然是最佳方式之一,击败通货膨胀率超过长途-一些联邦退休金保障公司人员和其他大多数专家承认的退休金” 。

The PBGC may have missed some opportunties over the years (as I have), but the timing is interesting.联邦退休金保障公司可能错过了一些机遇多年来(正如我刚才) ,但有趣的是,时间。 Maybe there’sa few other folks looking for that market bottom.也许有其他几个乡亲寻找市场底部。

“The PBGC is responsible for the pensions of 1.3 million Americans, but we don’t currently have the resources to keep all of our future commitments,†Millard said. “联邦退休金保障公司负责的养老金130万美国人,但我们donâ € ™吨,目前有资源,以保持所有我们的未来的承诺, â €米拉德说。 “The new investment policy adopted by the PBGC Board of Directors will better manage our invested assets. â € œthe新的投资政策所通过的联邦退休金保障公司的董事局,将更好地管理我们的投资资产。 Although it should generate higher returns, it also offers lower risk through broader diversification.â€虽然它应该产生更高的回报,它也提供了风险较低的通过更广泛的diversification.â €

PBGC analysts figure the organization now has a 57 percent likelihood of fully funding its obligations within 10 years, up from just 19 percent before.联邦退休金保障公司分析师的数字,该组织现在有一个57 %的可能性,充分的资金履行其义务在10年内,从刚才的19 % 。 Which sounds a little better considering the number of people that are counting on them:这听起来有点更好地考虑到有多少人是票对他们的:

“PBGC is a federal corporation created by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974. “联邦退休金保障公司是一个联邦公司所创造的雇员退休收入保障法1974年。 It currently protects the pensions of nearly 44 million American workers and retirees in 30,330 private single-employer and multiemployer defined benefit pension plans.它目前保护的养老金近4400万美国工人及退休人员30330私人单一雇主及multiemployer既定给付养老金计划。 PBGC receives no funds from general tax revenues.联邦退休金保障公司没有收到资金,由政府一般税收。 Operations are financed by insurance premiums set by Congress and paid by sponsors of defined benefit plans, investment income, assets from pension plans trusteed by PBGC, and recoveries from the companies formerly responsible for the plans.”业务经费由保险费所订的国会和所付出的赞助商界定利益计划,投资收入,资产从退休金计划trusteed由联邦退休金保障公司,回收率从公司的前身是负责该计划“ 。

Has the market reached a bottom yet?有市场达成了底部尚未呢? Next month?下个月呢? Are we in a recession?我们在经济衰退? One thing is sure, bottom or not the stock market’s fortunes are tied to that of the US economy. Many see the US in a recession now and challenging times ahead of us .  Which means a turn-around for the economy may be several quarters or more away.有一件事是肯定的是,底部或不股票市场的命运是联系在一起,即美国经济。 许多人认为,美国在经济衰退的现在和充满挑战的时代摆在我们面前 。 â这意味着转机-左右为经济可能几个季度或以上的距离。 No one really knows, but the doom and gloom prophets are certainly reaching a chorus.  So if you’re stepping back in the market with new money, know that it may be a patient wait with a lot of volatility before the indices head back up.没有人真正知道,但厄运和忧愁先知,当然是达成一项chorus.â所以,如果您加强回在市场上与新钱,知道这可能是一个病人等待了很多的波动之前,指数的头部回向上。

Perhaps I’m the eternal optimist, but I think the later half of this year could see very strong markets and the economy turning around. Unless the Democrats keep talking about raising taxes .也许是我永恒的乐观主义者,但我认为今年下半年可以看到非常强烈的市场和经济的扭转。 除非民主党人继续谈论加税 Then all bets are off for a few years.然后,所有投注是小康了几年。 But there’s lots of media driven fear out there.但也有很多媒体驱动的恐惧存在。 While out shopping this weekend I couldn’t help but notice how all the restaurants were packed as well as the grocery and big-box stores.而走出商场本周末,我不能帮助,但如何通知所有餐馆挤得水泄不通,以及杂货店和大盒的商店。 Maybe we’re still spending money we don’t have?也许我们还在花钱,我们没有?

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