May 03 5月3日

Where do we go Dow? 何去何从道琼工业指数?

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The Bulls are having a field day… if the Dow closes up today I think that would make 22 out of the last 25 trading days up, and the S&P is setting a new high.  I think my “more conservative” portfolio is hanging in there, since I have enough stock exposure with Vanguard Primecap ( VPMCX ) and Vanguard Wellington ( VWELX ).  I still like where I am as a balanced approach.  I’ve been looking hard at various stocks to find some good dividend payers with low multiples, low debt and solid earnings.  Hmmm… haven’t we all!  I like the strength of Altria ( MO ) and found an entry point last week, as well as Pfizer ( PFE ).  Altria will be a long position for the dividen return.  Pfizer is a tough call, but I think the valuation is attractive as well as the dividend return at this point.  The pharmaceuticals have some issues over the next 5 years as several key patented drugs are due to expire and face potentially heavy generic competition.  But Pfizer has been a laggard for over a year now and may find some room to grow.公牛队有一个领域的天… …如果道琼工业指数结束了今天,我认为这将使22走出过去25个交易日,和S & P是设置一个新的high.â我想我的“较为保守”的投资组合是悬在在那里,因为我已经enoughâ股票exposureâ与先锋primecap ( vpmcx )和Vanguard惠灵顿( vwelx ) 。 â我仍像我在哪里,作为一个平衡的approach.â â我一直在努力寻找各种股票,以找到一些良好的股息缴纳低倍数,低债务和坚实的earnings.â hmmm …我们不是所有! â â我喜欢的力量, Altria集团( MO )的,发现一个切入点上周,以及辉瑞制药( PFE ) 。 â奥驰亚集团将一个长期的立场,为dividen return.â辉瑞是一个强硬的呼吁,但我认为是有吸引力的估价,以及股息回报在这point.â药品有一些问题在未来五年,作为几个关键专利药品到期届满,面对潜在的重型通用competition.â ,但辉瑞hasâ一直laggardâ超过一年的现在和可能会发现一些成长空间。 With better than a 4% yield and 27 Billion in cash I think they can continue growing earnings and the product line.Â与优于4 %的产量和270.00亿的现金我认为他们可以继续保持增长,收入和产品line.â

But I’m still looking for a pretty strong pullback in the market.  Energy prices are hitting the pocketbook pretty hard right now, with little change in the near-term forecast.  Some of the experts explain that energy, more specifically gasoline and fuel purchases, are a much smaller part of the household budget today as opposed to 30 years ago.  That may be true, but it doesn’t change the fact that consumers must pay more and more each day just to get around.  I think we also commute a lot further and more frequently these days.   My informal “Gripe Ratio” based on the negative voices heard at the pump are increasingly loud, and I’m seeing a few new bumper stickers not so politely talking about gas prices.   Those costs are going to continue creeping into the economy and we’ll see it at the grocery store.  And how about that summer tourism?  Lots more folks will be traveling locally I suspect.  The consumer spending numbers will be interesting this year, and I’ll be curious about the inflation numbers in the 2-3 quarters ahead.  But you have to acknowledge the strength of earnings so far.  If I was a trader however, I think I’d be taking some profits pretty soon.但我仍在寻找一个美丽的强有力的回调,在market.â能源价格打到钱袋子相当困难的权利,现在,几乎没有改变在短期内forecast.â部分的expertsâ解释说,能源,更具体地说,汽油和购买燃料, areâ小得多的一部分,家庭的财政预算案,今天作为反对三十年ago.â认为,可能是事实,但它并不能改变事实,即消费者必须支付更多的每一天刚刚获得around.â i觉得我们还通勤了很多进一步和更频密,这些days.â â我的非正式“的抱怨比率” â基于onâ负面的声音在泵正越来越响亮,我看到几个newâ保险杠贴纸,并非如此有礼貌地谈aboutâ气体prices.â â这些费用是否要继续蠕动纳入经济和我们会看到它在杂货店store.â和如何那年夏天,旅游呢? â地段更多的乡亲将beâ旅行本地i suspect.â â消费者开支数字将有趣的这一年,我会好奇的通货膨胀数字,在2月3日宿舍ahead.â ,但你必须承认的力量,收入,使far.â假如我是一名商人,但我认为我' D是采取了一些利润,用不了多久。

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