Apr 19 4月19日

Market Musings 市场musings

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The market has been on the move forward this week, a little at a time.  We’re due for a pullback- wouldn’t surprise me if it was pretty volatile.  I find it very interesting that the US dollar is at a multi-year low against the Euro with many unkowns in the economy right now, and yet the market still moves forward.  I’m certainly not complaining, but I’m not sure that the “rising tide” is “lifting all boats” this time.  Morningstar recently put out an article  describing the market as close to fairly valued, with the DOW undervalued by almost 7%.  Essentially the view indicates investor expectations for “modest returns this year.”  I was surprised by that analysis because the market just seems overvalued to me after a pretty good run since late summer of ‘06.  How do they do it?  From the Morningstar article, “We can compute an aggregate fair value for the market by calculating a market-cap-weighted average of our fair value estimates for the stocks in an index.市场一直在动议forwardâ这个星期,有点在time.â我们正在到期回调-将不会感到奇怪,我如果是漂亮的volatile.â我觉得很有趣的是,美元正处于一个多年来的最低点对欧元与许多unkowns在经济方面的权利,现在,但市场仍然举动forward.â我当然不会抱怨,但我不能肯定说, “涨潮”是“取消所有的船只”这time.â晨星公司最近推出的一篇文章 â描述市场接近公平价值,与道琼工业指数undervaluedâ几乎7 % 。 â基本上的看法,表明投资者expectationsâ为“温和的回报,今年” â我很惊讶由分析,因为市场似乎被高估了我的后一个不错的运行以来,夏末'06 。 â â他们如何做呢? â从晨星的文章, “我们可以计算总的公允价值为市场所计算的市场上限加权平均我们的公平价值估计为股票在一指数。 To determine if the market is over- or undervalued, we then compare the indexes’ aggregate fair values to their current market prices.”    So it’s Morningstar’s analysis that provides the basis.  I’ve always enjoyed their research, I don’t always agree with their views.   It’s going to take a lot more upside earnings numbers and strength in the economy before I see upside.  But how about that eBay?!  Pretty decent earnings… I just love a company that earns money through leveraging the passions of other people.  Speaking of the passions of other people..如果要判断市场是过度或低估,然后,我们比较指标总额为公平价值,以他们目前的市场价格。 “ â â所以的晨星公司的分析,即提供了basis.â我总是喜欢他们的研究,我并不总是同意他们的views.â â现在需要有更多的好处和收益有多少实力,在经济之前,我看到upside.â ,但如何eBay的吗! â漂亮体面的收入… …我刚才爱一家公司赚moneyâ通过杠杆激情其他people.â谈到激情其他人的.. I’ve been waiting for a good entry point for Altria and this week may provide one.  They just posted a first-quarter decline of 21% of net profits… although international growth is strong and their forecasts are positive.  Should be an interesting week.我一直在等待一个很好的切入点,奥驰亚集团和本星期可能会提供one.â ,他们只发布了第一季度下降了21 %的纯利润…虽然国际的增长是强有力的和他们的预测是positive.â应该是一个有趣的一周。

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