That’s pantry fellas, okay? You know, that closet or cupboard where you keep your food and canned goods? I looked around ours recently and discovered we’ve got a lot more food on hand than we realized. Maybe not fresh foods like milk and eggs, but if push came to shove we could probably go a month without a major shopping trip. That’s not even counting what’s in the freezer. With thoughts like these it’s no wonder we’re reading about consumer spending taking a huge dive last month:
“The Commerce Department reported Friday that retail sales fell by 2.8 percent last month, the biggest drop on record, surpassing the old mark of a 2.65 percent plunge in November 2001 that occurred after the terrorist attacks. The October sales decline was led by a huge fall in auto purchases, but sales of all types of products suffered as consumers, worried about their jobs and the market turbulence, cut back sharply on spending.”
“The dismal report on retail sales was worse than the 2 percent decline that analysts expected. It marked the fourth straight decrease, the longest stretch of weakness on record. Retailers are braced for what could be the worst holiday shopping season in decades with economists forecasting a recession that could turn out to be the steepest since the 1981-82 downturn.”
“A survey of the nation’s big chain retail stores found that retailers suffered through the weakest October in at least 39 years even though they tried to gin up more sales by a frenzied round of price cutting.”
Of course there’s a bright side to a retail downturn… discounts and sales everywhere. Now retail doesn’t usually include grocery stores, but I know folks are cutting back there too. The stores are quieter and emptier. Except for Wal-Mart. I made the mistake of going to Wal-Mart on a Friday a week ago- holy cow!
Having grown up through the ‘81-’82 downturn, I’m not sure I learned anything of significance either, especially because I was young and single, and didn’t have a family or home to support. But we scrambled with multiple jobs and did what we had to do… worked, saved and pinched pennies. I do remember running out of gas a few times… that was embarassing, but more a reflection of my lack of foresight than anything else. You know what else was lack of foresight? Not investing on a disciplined basis each year at the time- I probably gave up a decade or more of investment returns over the length of the 1980’s bull market. But that’s another story.
As I ponder the current state of affairs it strikes me that most of us have a lot more resources at hand than we may realize. And that’s also because most of us plan ahead a little bit, and try to stay prepared for whatever might come. If I look in the pantry, the garage and a few other places, I realize we have a lot of stuff. Some of it is even useful. If things get really tough, we’ll be fine for a while. We’ve already cut back, and we have room to cut back more if we need to. Admittedly lots of other folks may not, and we’ll need to help them where we can.
All across America starting this weekend the Boy Scouts and Cub Scouts have their annual food drive to gather donations and help people. So many of the local food pantry and shelters really need the donations. Looking at our household pantry I know we have a lot of cans we can give to help another family with Thanskgiving this month.
But if you’ve read Sushi Money at all before, you know I’m not one who believes we’re falling into another Great Depression. Heck they haven’t even called it a recession formally yet. But when they do (oh, they most assuredly will!), the recession will probably have started around the middle of 2008.
We don’t know when this recession will end. We don’t know how deep it will be, or what will help trigger the turnaround. But to get the nation moving and growing again means we’ve got to foster business and public works. And James Stewart’s approach to How Obama Can Fix the Economy makes as much sense as anything I’ve heard from Congress or the Treasury Secretary. The new President will have a full plate, and a lot of motivation for changing the economic course we’re on right now. I don’t envy his job, but is there a better time to be a new President than with the economy on the ropes? Looks like opportunity to me.
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