It’s no surprise to many of us that consumer price inflation has risen at the fastest rate in 17 years. We see that with each trip to the grocery store or gas station. It raises questions about interest rates.and a lot of other issues in our future. Per Bloomberg:
“The report may intensify the debate between those Fed policy makers that forecast inflation will slow and those concerned that price pressures will accelerate. Increases beyond food and fuel, including gains in clothing, airline fares and education, make it less likely that central bankers will be able to keep interest rates unchanged for long.”
So far this year the government’s CPI shows inflation running at over 5 %.
“There is “a tremendous amount of cost pressure here that is affecting many, many industries,” William Poole, the former St. Louis Fed president, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Today’s report “raises the general trajectory” of interest rates, reducing the chance of cuts and bringing forward the likelihood of increases, he said. ”
Imagine if inflation stayed at that rate for several years or even increased more? If we’re not earning at least that much in interest on our savings or investments over time, then we’re actually losing money.
The Fed must walk a fine line between keeping rates low due to our current economic challenges and raising rates based on the threat of inflation. So far they’ve held the line and most believe will continue to do so this year. But real estate is clawing for traction while foreclosures are still high. Yet Alan Greenspan sees a potential housing bottom in 2009. That doesn’t mean housing recovers quickly however.
Greenspan cautioned that even at a bottom “prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond.” An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis.
“Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world’s mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “We won’t really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system’s balance sheet — and hence banks’ capital — until then,” he said.
And that’s the question: When is Then? I’ve believed housing would begin to recover in 2009, and we may indeed see that. But based on the credit and banking issues the nation (world) is facing, we’re going to see a slowly drawn out recovery. It may be 3-4 years before we really see stability in both housing and lending, or the economy.
But the economy may recover more quickly in terms of jobs and growth if we can get a handle on energy and defense spending. Also not something that may happen for a couple years or more, but I believe it will come. Yet that belief is simply an opinion, one of thousands. We don’t know what the nation will face economically in a few years, or the challenges we’ll see at home.
For that reason, there’s little choice but to keep improving the “family bottom line.” That means we’re still saving, working off debt and investing for our future. To get to that future, we must embrace our vital role in creation of a financial structure that supports our needs and choices. Retirement is something we all dream of, but it’s not something that, ideally, just happens when we reach a magical age. It could, but most of us would like to plan ahead a little more.
Walter Updegrave hits on the retirement planning issue when asked by a couple how they can determine how much money they’ll have when they retire at age 65. He says instead to determine how much money we’ll need to support the lifestyle we want, and then we can decide when to retire.
“I mean, it’s not as if we get a comfortable and secure retirement just because we reach a certain age. The real issue in determining when you can retire is whether you’ve got enough in savings and other resources so you can leave your job yet still live the lifestyle you want, or at least one that’s acceptable to you.”
“What’s more, this sort of assessment isn’t something that you should be leaving to the eve of your expected retirement date. You should ideally keep tabs over the course of your career on your progress toward a comfortable retirement. And at the very least once you hit the home stretch - that is, when you’re within 10 or so years of when you hope to retire - you should be doing a fairly rigorous analysis every year or so to confirm whether you’re still on track to achieve your target retirement date and, if not, re-assess your plan.”
The article cites many other considerations such as social security and a retirement budget. If the discussion looks somewhat redundant to many people, that’s because there are so many people asking these questions.
I don’t know about you, but I find new things to learn every day. A smooth upward track toward a financially secure future would be nice. But along the way our financial fortunes fluctuate and change. Keeping up with those changes is part of the game, and planning for how to get to retirement means we re-visit a few things along the way. I’m still working on the financial structure that will support the future I want. And I’ve embraced my role in helping create it. It would be nice if the economy and markets would help out a little more, but there’s no time to wait.
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