Sushi Money

*** Update ***  Apparently the Treasury Secretary’s plan does NOT include plans for current homeowners to refinance their loans.  So while many of us may sit on mortgage loans at greater than 6% or 7%, this plan would allow neighbors to move in to their house with a new mortgage loan with much lower payments.   This seems wrong… it may be a temporary fix, but how will it help millions of current homeowners who are having trouble making payments on their current mortgage loans? 

This week we found out we’re officially in a recession, and have been since around December, 2007.  The market has been wallowing at multi-year lows and layoffs have been increasing.  In light of so many economic challenges, it’s hard to see any bright spots that can move us forward.  But what about a lower mortgage payment?  Would a couple hundred extra bucks each month really make a difference, or help people purchase a house?

For many of us, it just might.  That’s the focus area of the government recently- mortgage loans and the possibility that a U.S. sponsored wave of mortgage activity and refinancing could bolster both the housing market and the economy as a whole. 

“The plan, which is in the development stage, would temporarily use the clout of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to encourage banks to lend at rates as low as 4.5%, more than a full point lower than prevailing rates for standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.”

“The plan is very similar to an idea floated in October by R. Glenn Hubbard and Christopher Mayer, academics at Columbia University’s Business School. “I think a program to substantially bring down rates for homebuyers would be an incredibly valuable program, and I think it captures a real part of solving what has been an incredibly challenging dislocation in the credit markets,” Mr. Mayer said in an interview. He estimated the idea under consideration could quickly help 1.5 million to 2.5 million people buy homes, giving a major boost to the housing market and broader economy.”

Certainly people would still need to qualify for the mortgage and have decent credit ratings to do so.  But a 30-year loan at 4.5% ?  Sign me up… not only would the monthly payment for many of us decrease, we would be able to focus more on reducing debt levels and increasing consumer spending.  *** Not for current homeowners! ***

“…Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson views lowering mortgage rates as key to fixing the housing crisis; hence the mortgage-security-buying program announced last week.  The most important thing we can do to mitigate foreclosures and progress through the housing correction,” Mr. Paulson said in a speech Monday, “is to reduce the cost of mortgage finance, so more families can afford to buy a home and so homeowners can refinance into more affordable mortgages.”

I have to agree (for once) with Secretary Paulson- making homeownership more affordable for credit-worthy families sounds like a great idea.  As long as we aren’t handing out loans to people that can’t repay them… hopefully we’ve learned that lesson already. 

Just for kicks I ran the numbers on the difference between the monthly payment for a 6.5% 30 year fixed-rate loan, and the same loan at 4.5%.  These numbers are for principal and interest only and don’t include taxes or insurance payments:

• 6.5% 30-year fixed-rate loan:   Monthly payment of $1,137.72
• 4.5% 30-year fixed-rate loan:   Monthly payment of $ 912.03

Okay, so we save about $225 bucks a month with the new mortgage. That’s not chump-change, and lots of folks can qualify for a 4.5% loan that would not otherwise qualify for a 6.5% loan.  Even refinancing is a great idea as long as we’re planning to stay in that house for a few years or more.   *** Not for current homeowners! ***

A Rush Into Refinancing may be just what the country needs right now however. But the new plan may not even include this option!  

I thought that’s what the Treasury Secretary was aiming for, and how they believe it can help dig out the country from the current housing mess.  Get more people into homes sitting empty out there, and make those monthly payments more affordable for all of us.  Good idea, but if they exclude current homeowners, then I don’t see how it helps the economy en masse.

By the way, what’s even more important over the long term on that interest rate scenario?  Think about how much interest you would be saving. 

• 6.5% 30-year fixed-rate loan:  Total interest paid $229,587
• 4.5% 30-year fixed-rate loan:  Total interest paid $148,336

That lower rate loan would save us over $81,000 dollars!!!

Sounds pretty good to me- that would pay for a kitchen and bath remodel, or even a few new cars over the lifetime of that mortgage loan. 

So is it time to buy that house you’ve been looking for?  Time to wade into real estate again?  Well, the real estate debate continues, and there are many opinions.   Even if a lot of us can think of several really good real estate deals out there, the money’s just not there right now.  And that’s part of the problem- with the stock market down, real income down, and folks losing their jobs, we’re running out of people that can qualify to purchase real estate.  

Maybe, just maybe, lower long term mortgage rates will help us climb out of this whirlpool?  Hard to say- that whirlpool is also a downward spiral… and deflation can take a long time to work out of.  Just ask the Japanese.

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