Sushi Money

Is there a subtle change taking place in the direction of the markets, and maybe the economy?  I’ve noticed a few writers here and there that are looking ahead, rather than dwelling on the banking crisis and every negative event that may affect the economy.   During any overzealous expansion there’s going to be contraction.  But there’s still many who have jumped on the doom and gloom bandwagon and are still focusing on what’s “wrong” with everything.  

It’s pretty evident that we face some stark challenges right now.  Between housing, industry layoffs, lending woes, and energy and commodities prices, the American consumer is taking it on the chin.  I tend to be very supportive of our elected officials intentions, even if they don’t get very much accomplished at times.  But with escalting gas and grocery prices, I really wonder if everyone from the President on down really understands how these challenges are affecting families across the nation this year.

Certainly it’s not a typical year.  It’s an election year for the nation’s highest offices, and we’re going to continue to hear what’s “wrong” with the direction of the country for many more months.   But even with the challenges we face, I think smart money looks a little more forward than that, and plans for days of positive growth and opinion once again.

We’ve seen some forward thinking recently with strong upward moves in the markets in recent weeks.  Leading indicators have not been all bad and equity valuations in some areas have become so attractive that investors are looking for bargains and positioning funds for the years ahead.  Donald Luskin says the Recovery is Already Underway and that “the worst is over.”

“Industrial production was reported as rising 0.3% last month, when it was expected to have declined. That’s a key recession indicator — and it’s just not indicating. The high-tech component of industrial production has been especially strong, currently at all-time highs.  And then there are the markets themselves. Since the panic bottom a month ago yesterday, the S&P 500 has returned 7.1%. The best-performing sectors have been financials, energy and materials, indicating that the credit crisis is mending and that fundamental forces of growth are strong.”

“The bears hang onto every little scrap of evidence coming out of the financial and housing sectors to bolster their case that we’re already in a recession and headed for a depression. Doesn’t any of this good news count for anything?”

Laura Rowley takes a more historical look referencing economic research that sees the current economic downturn as a normal response to a financial crisis.  While she indicates we may have some time still to get through it, long term investors should stay the course:

“What does history imply for individual investors, who are more worried than ever about making it through retirement? “If you’re there for the buy-and-hold, long-term view, it’s a very different world,” says Reinhart. “These booms and busts do happen, but unless you really invested very poorly you do have the ability to ride these things out.”

Of course if you’re facing great changes in your life such as trying to pay for the mortgage, looking for a new job, or looking at retirement sooner than later, then it’s hard to sit on the side of optimism right now.   But I think it’s important to be rational and pragmatic, as opposed to letting the stress of worry and fear of the unknown influence your life.

The media doesn’t help with all the catastrophic announcements of doom and chaos, and story after story of people going through hard times.   Is it really that bad for everyone?  No.  But it is bad for some people, and we empathize and try to help where we can, while doing our best to keep our own financial lives in order.

For those of us facing retirement in the short term, keeping the financial house in order may take more effort than we thought.   Laura Bruce from Bankrate.com provides a good overview of the retirement perspective in Retiring in a Bad Economy: Are You in Trouble?   While the intro is a little alarmist, it probably increases readership.  That’s actually a good thing because this article has some excellent insight for both younger and older workers.   The article focuses on the fear and concern that many people have while seeing the banking crisis or a possible recession unfold.  What is a typical reaction for most of us?  We either use our savings to get by, increase our savings if we can, or try to put some extra cash in our retirement accounts to help support us in case we need it.

“But many people don’t have the money needed to give them that cushion; whether due to a lack of income or financial planning. Juetten, who doesn’t require people to have a certain amount of money before he’ll take them on as clients, estimates that only about one in five of the people who come to see him have done a really good job of planning for retirement.”

“First, we deal with the human side. Fear and concern are normal. The news is all around us and it’s hard to ignore. People going into retirement are the ones who are most aware of their financial situation because all of a sudden it’s right in front of them. Second, we talk about the short-term cash needs and, third, we look at the portfolio.”

“If you haven’t done a good enough job preparing for retirement, your options are fairly limited. You can work longer, live on less or work in retirement.”

And that’s a tough pill to swallow.  As we get older, we may have less time to accumulate financial assets.  One troubling statistic shows that 401(k) loans are on the rise.  If more people are borrowing from their retirement plans while working, what are they going to do when it’s time for retirement?  Do you just throw in the towel and assume you’ll keep working?   While working longer is a constructive option, it’s important not to have a deafeatist attitude because there are things we can do.  Living on less is very important, as many of us are finding out with higher gas and grocery prices.   (I don’t know about you but we’re really cutting back in some areas, and we just aren’t splurging on some of the convenience items we may have purchased in the past).

But some of the biggest lessons that financial planners and clients have learned is to save enough money during the working years to provide necessary cash flow in times of trouble.  Some view this as saving for an emergency fund to support three years of living expenses- whether before or after retirement.  Does your 401(k) count as this emergency fund?  Nope.  Those are retirement funds.  We need to save money in other accounts to serve as that emergency fund. 

As we get close to retirement we may find ourselves increasing our savings and investments to provide a stream of cash flow that can support us if desired.  Many retirees don’t use the cash flow that their portfolio could provide, investing it back in the portfolio instead.  But if something does happen to challenge your ability to make ends meet, a portfolio that generates income can be the foundation that carries the day.  Getting there financially is what it’s all about. And that’s a lesson that younger workers should really take note of.

“Younger people who have time to save for retirement have an opportunity to learn from these economic cycles and avoid the frayed nerves that so many older people are experiencing.”

A lot of us look back 10-15 years and realize we could have done a lot more to increase our financial position.  Without beating ourselves up or giving in to fear however, we can also use that knowledge to make new goals and take positive, constructive steps to improve our financial futures.   We may not win the lottery or invent the next million-dollar gizmo, but with disciplined effort, we can patiently accumulate savings and investments that will help support a sound retirement. 

And there’s another realization that many are just waking up to:   As the nation goes tumbling through the economic briar patch, we’ve got to pull ourselves up and work our way out of the tangle.  Nobody else is going to do it for us.

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