Sushi Money

So where might we see excess today? Maybe commodities, or prescious metals? Natural resources and energy? I think every one of those areas are seeing heightened speculation and excess, but that doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with it, especially if you’re making money. And it may continue for a long time. Or not. At some point it will be time to change and find a new trend. I wish I was better at that, but it’s one thing to look at future change and quite another to time financial decisions with that change to make money.

That’s why for most of us I believe in steady, disciplined investing over 20-30 years or more. You don’t need to worry about market timing over the long term. You do need to think about asset allocation and diversification, especially when nearing retirement. But even while we invest patiently for retirement it doesn’t mean we can’t look at the trends and make some other decisions about where we might invest our time, energy and even money. I set aside a little “investing money” that I use to do just that- invest in trends and ideas.

So what’s going to be “The Next Big Excess?” What’s the next big thing that thousands of consumers are going to plunge into for a few years, hoping to secure their fortune? Will there be one? Will it be another bubble? Is there something that will result in mass change or adoption? I wish I knew!

I think we can look ahead and pick out some themes of change that will affect our lives in the future. See if you feel the same way, or have different ideas:

Here are 10 Themes of Change I see over the next decade and beyond:

1. Boomer Retirement: The Boomer generation has begun retirement, and thousands of people will continue to do so every day for the next 20-30 years. Add another 20-30 years on to that for millions of older Americans that will have money to spend on services and support needs. There are many new business and franchise ventures focusing on services for older adults, and this demographic bonanza will continue for decades.

2. Health care services: Health care is an essential aspect of future services and business growth for the same reason as # 1: Millions of older adults will need health care services and products over the next several decades. Biotech may be struggling right now, but think of the potential for these markets in the years ahead.

3. Education and Job-retraining: With change comes the requirement to adapt and grow. Growth is based on learning, or at least a willingness to learn. There are enormous opportunities for businesses, consultants and industry in education and training, and we’ll continue to see that growth in the future. Older adults are also returning to the classroom and may prove critical to continued economic growth and fulfilling job needs within the community. Community college growth is expanding, and vocational-technical schools are serving an essential role as well.

4. Communication and Navigation: We’re going to know where we are and talk with anyone no matter our location in the years ahead. Oh wait, we pretty much already do that right? But it’s going to be increasingly simpler and more available. With GPS navigation and satellite and cellular technology advances, the world is changing fast. Garmin will have a mobile phone out this year where a friend sends you a pic and you push “Go!” and it tells you how to navigate to where they are. Imagine using Google Earth or Panoramio and picking out a cool tourist photo… then your gps can navigate you to that site.
5. Business coaching and consulting: Providing competent advice and counsel in response to complexity will grow by leaps and bounds. Related to many areas above, but coaching, consulting, advising and teaching emerges in response to the complexity of many aspects of our lives, especially with technology. If you have expertise and can help others improve their lives and function better amidst the complexity we face- then you have a marketable skill that others will pay for.

6. Engineering and technology development: Do we have growth at all if not for highly skilled knowledge workers who develop the hardware, software and networked applications to leverage technological advance? No. IT expertise continues to be in demand and companies reach across international boundaries because they don’t find enough skilled workers here in the U.S. Steve Rubel explains that what we see now as “the web” is not where the web is going. We see a reflection of web services, and service integration will grow by leaps and bounds.

7. Alternative energy services and the Green Movement: Could this be the “next big thing” we see? It’s already huge and growing by leaps and bounds. Several states are leading the way already but we’re going to see an explosion of interest in alternative energy development such as solar. California offers tremendous rebates and assistance with solar development and installation compared to many other states.

• Now that fuel prices have exceeded $3 per gallon of gas nationwide, people really grumble. But what happens when we start paying $4 or $5 a gallon? Gas prices are already changing the way we live. Families are going to be challenged as never before as those costs influence how we drive and consume food and other resources.
• Water use and scarcity may influence many changs in the future. Drought effects of the past two years were severe across the nation, with far reaching changes in water use and regulations. With increased population growth, water needs will continue to rise, and resource depletion may become a real threat over time.

In a society where we spend more money and resources to develop a product (ethanol) that raises the cost of production for other fuel and the food products we need (corn, soybeans, etc), then it’s time to look at a wider array of alternative resources. Solar energy will make an enormous difference as the barriers to entry (cost and physical size) continue to decrease. Many of us would put a solar array on our homes tomorrow if it wasn’t so expensive or difficult. Equally, more people recognize that the human footprint within the enviroment must not tread so heavily. We can focus on stewardship and resource use balanced with human needs. The Green movement continues to make a difference in pulling us in that direction.

8. Frugality and Living Simpler:

• What would the world of personal finance and blogging be without themes of frugality? Many of us are learning that it pays economically to live a more frugal lifestyle. Sure we appreciate good things and fine living, but the meaning, definitions and cost of doing so is changing. Realistically, we are finding that our future economic well-being is in our own hands. We can create the financial future we desire through sound strategies of saving and investing. And being frugal is an important theme for economic cost-beneifit analysis and increasing savings while decreasing spending.
• As we age, many people are choosing a simpler way of life. Downsizing to smaller homes, or homes with caretaking services for landscaping and other needs. Even for those not downsizing per se, there is movement towards the simpler, more carefree aspects in living. Making things simpler for others is a theme that works and, ironically, folks will spend a lot of money to find a simpler lifestyle.

9. Charitable Giving and Micro Finance: As we grow and technology enables choice and opportunity, I think we are becoming more action-oriented towards charitable causes. Whether that be with cash donations or though giving our time volunteering, people want to become involved in helping other people improve their lives. Micro finance lending sites such as Kiva.com are doing just that.

10.Biotech, Nanotech, Robotics, Astrosciences: Well, maybe the promise of the future is a bit early, but the gains being made in bioengineering and nanotechnology are amazing. Of course some people think none of this will really matter anyway because the world’s going to end in 2012. Or if it doesn’t the internet’s going to end in 2038! Who knows… I think we have enough threats already in the world via fanatical extremists and natural resource depletion to keep us occupied for a good many years.

I love thinking about the future, but sometimes it’s easier to stay naively optimistic. There are countless ideas and creative applications out there “whose time has come” but have yet to reach the masses. I hope to capitalize on some of these themes both in terms of investments and personal focus. And maybe we’ll even make decisions that influence our career based on future change. Do you see anything else coming down the road? Any career or technology aspects that will be important to think about?

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