    I was flipping through channels last night half-absent mindedly while doing some writing, and saw the “Deal or No Deal” show…  did you see it? Some guy ended up with three of those “suitcases” left: A $1,000,000 suitcase, a $750,000 suitcase and a $10 suitcase.  He was then offered $493,000 as a “deal” to stop playing!   Holy schmoly… a half a million dollars, and what did he do? He had a 1 in three chance of getting $10 but a guaranteed $493,000… he said “No Deal!” and played again.
Fortunately for him, or unfortunately depending upon how you view it, he eliminated the $1,000,000 suitcase and then was only offered $296,000. This time he said “Deal!” and went home with almost three hundred grand in the bank, before taxes, seemingly pretty please with himself. Well why not I suppose.
But if someone gave me a guaranteed chance at half a million, or a 1 in three chance at $10 (or a million, or $750,000) I would take the guaranteed money every single time. Of course maybe the same reason I wouldn’t have risked the $493,000 means I may not have got that far, and would have taken less earlier in the game? Â
I haven’t watched the show much, but a few months ago I watched someone else wind their way down from over a hundred thousand dollars, to basically nothing.   Why do people do that? Why must people go for the huge chance of a gain, rather than a decent, or heck- a great return? Probably some parallels in the market… what would you do?
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