   A long time market sage and renowned investor, Jim Rogers, has proclaimed the U.S. is “undoubtedly in recession” already. That may come as a surprise to many economists, especially those who monitor hoards of statistics.  It is true however that recessions often begin with little concrete data to show the economic reality that defines it at the time. Some recessions are only revealed after they’ve been underway for a while.  But is Jim Rogers right? I respect his views, but somehow he has always appeared quite negative on the U.S. economy. In fact, I think he has been predicting a U.S. recession on and off again for the last 4-5 years now. From my reading of his strategies, he’s often a contrarian and sees the world from a “glass half empty” viewpoint. But he’s an interesting guy, with equally interesting views that I think are important to consider to gain a larger perspective.
   Interestingly, with his contrarian approach, Jim Rogers even believes the Fed should be raising rates instead of cutting them.  His view of the Federal Reserve cutting the funds rate is that it will result in a lower U.S. dollar and lead the nation into a recession. In a September 2007 interview, he stated that by raising interest rates, the Fed would “quell inflation and support the U.S. currency.”  I sure don’t agree with his view of raising rates in light of the housing and credit crisis challenging the nation, but I understand his view and concern for the overall economy. It’s a tough situation and quite a balancing act for the Federal Reserve which meets in about a week.  Personally I wonder if they will hold off a rate cut this time for precisely that reason- appearing too concerned about the economy while potentially letting inflation rear its head.  I do think rates are on a downward trend, but we may not see a further rate reduction until November or December.   Are we in a recession now? If not, are we going to be in a recession?  This week former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan reiterated his view that the possibility is less than 50-50, but acknowledged the U.S. has a long way to go amid the “fear in the credit markets.” Housing and mortgage issues remain the major themes, especially in terms of the effect on the economy as a whole. Â
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