Sushi Money

     A wealth of information out there today.  The market is in a see-saw as investors digest earnings report and weigh the impact of subprime losses on the market and economy.  But the Bulls aren’t letting go easily.  In an article from Minyanville, “Professor” Greg Weldon takes a thorough look at the macro events taking place in the economy while making a bullish case for gold.  We’ve read a lot about the housing downturn and excess inventories, but the condo numbers in Miami, Florida are amazing: 

“…despite the inability of sellers to unload the existing inventory of 22,924 condos that are currently for sale in Miami-Dade County, builders are presently working on no less than 37 new high-rise condo buildings.  Subsequently, there will be an increase in the inventory of unsold units that exceeds 20,000 over the next few months (according to the Florida Association of Realtors).”

Fairly staggering numbers, and that doesn’t even mention the ovesupply of single-family homes in Florida… or the U.S. as a whole.  To leverage Greg’s article, here’s a chart with a little more clarity going back 40 years:

      I’d like to compare that chart with some demographic numbers, but it’s pretty amazing. There are a ton of homes for sale across the nation right now, and builders keep building!  I know in my county, new home building has slowed with incredible incentives being offered by the builders. Yet they keep building… with many half-empty developments and subdivisions among the more recent homes.  We bought in a subdivision in 2003, as one of the last homes being offered… a strategy that worked well when we sold in 2005.  Our buyer was concerned about a half-completed neighborhood.  Something to think about if you’re in the market for a new home, and yet those half-empty neighborhoods may offer pretty good deals over the next year.  Or more…  Countrywide (CFC) CEO  Angelo Mozilo doesn’t see a U.S. mortgage rebound until 2009. 

     As if the current mortgage default problems weren’t enough, CNN/Money reports that “the subprime mortgage meltdown has begun to spread to prime loans as even credit-worthy borrowers have started to fall behind on payments.”  Their data comes from Countrywide’s quarterly financial report where a spike in delinquencies was attributed to prime borrowers.  Existing home sales continue to drop off also, falling to a 5 year low with a 12% decrease in sales from June ‘06 to June ‘07.  Housing and mortgage-related issues will certainly be under the microscope over the next year and beyond.  Potential home-buyers should have the market of their dreams over the next couple of years- just make sure it’s really what you want.  Sellers will have a tougher time… but can do many things to get that home sold.   Most of us will be sitting tight and enjoying the homes we live in… as long as we can afford to live in them!

No comment - Post a comment

« Amazonia! | The Ouch! Factor of Investing »