Sushi Money

Is it just me, or are the warnings and doom about the real estate market finally reaching a loud chorus of negative sentiment lately?  Stirring the national emotions has always been a chosen tactic of the media to enhance readership, but it appears the media wind is behind the back of those predicting calamity rather than examining key issues.  The debate centers on the question of whether the real-estate and mortgage markets, with great effect on the national economy, are going to crash or just continue to slide for a time.  What does ”crash” mean exactly?  Are property values going to crash steeply all at once, or will we see a slow drizzle of devaluation over time?  Will the economy go into recession, or worse a full-blown depression?   Some are predicting the worst case.  But I just don’t believe it.  Not yet.  Lots of real-estate “bubble regions” may have a lot more pain to go through before prices stabilize.  Other regions that barely knew the existence of a real-estate bubble may simply stagnate for several years or more.  I watched a pundit on one of the major networks today say that effectively, “this is the worst real estate devaluation since the Great Depression.”  I’m not sure I agree with that statement… but I don’t have the statistics to debate him yet.  No question the credit markets are tightening and the subprime lenders are in trouble.  But I’ll take a wait-and-see attitude on the economy this year.

Let’s look at some more media reports.  This recent article by AP in the Seattle Times, Coalition warns of “Mortgage Tsunami,” urges reforms reports that the National Community Reinvestment Coalition is warning of the growing mortgage default problem “affecting millions of Americans, particularly minorities.”  Reading the article we find that this “coalition” has been warning of the problem for years.  Now they are really pouring on the verbal equivalent of yelling from the treetops.  Are they right?  So far they have been, although it has been somewhat alarmist.  They have been on the right track with their concern over time and seeking more regulation and reform in much needed areas of mortgage origination.  Certainly foreclosures are increasing, but primarily in the subprime markets. 

This article from CNN discusses how the Mortgage crisis is overwhelming credit counselors.   The discussion centers on the subprime lending arena for lower income loan recipients.  But I simply can’t understand how someone can sign for the biggest loan in their life, with paperwork that spells out their loan terms, and later say they didn’t realize the interest rates would increase on an adjustable loan, or what that meant in terms of payments.  Are they loaning money to people who can’t read?  If there is outright deception and fraud, then the subprime lenders should be taken to the woodshed and made to pay for their crimes.  Reform and regulation should apply in areas where oversight is lacking on such a widespread scale. But I will also say that I’ve had four adjustable rate mortgages in the past 10 years in separate housing markets, and the loan terms are very clear.  Unfortunately people may see the information but not put two-and-two together to understand the long-term personal financial impact.  I’ve used an ARM very effectively for it’s intended short-term purpose, and refinanced when necessary later.  For a lower income family in a tighter credit market however, I can understand how they could find themselves pressed with few refinance options.  But mortgage rates today are still very low compared to recent decades… if you can’t afford a house at current fixed mortgage rates, then you probably can’t afford the house with any other type of loan.  I think that’s the heart of the issue… putting people into homes they simply could not afford, and should not have been buying.  “No kidding” I hear you say…  Well, down the road some people are going to get terrific deals as buyers and there are many perspectives on the issue.  Famed commodity investor Jim Rogers is also issuing warnings in a March 14th Reuters article by Elif Kaban titled “Top investor sees U.S. property crash.”  He is on the mark for many forecasts, but he’s also been very negative on various  markets for years… Seems like I only see him when the media circus looks for strong opinion in times of negative sentiment or emotion.

 I’ve always understood that what we believe to be true can become true, whether it is true at the time or not, and even whether we really want it to be true or not.  Mass psychological energy, the “herd mentality” or whatever you choose to call it can have tangible effects in society for the momentum of popular focus and thought.  The media plays an enormous role of course in swaying popular opinion.  I must say that I’m more concerned with the hysteria that media reports generate over time for consumers.  But if reform and necessary market recalibration also occurs through the slow march of time then that is normal.  But it is often through great calamity and pain for real people that change happens in the first place.

I think it’s worth remembering some key aspects of real estate:

1.  Did you purchase your home to live in, and plan to stay for many years?  If the answer is yes, then don’t worry about the doom and gloom in the mainstream media.  Take care of your family and finances, pay your mortgage and take care of your home.  All markets have cycles, and this one will change again in the future.  Tune out the noise and enjoy your home. 

2.  Are you thinking of selling or buying, because of job or family issues and the time is right?  Then do your homework and take a hard look at what you will sell it for, or buy it for.  Make sure it is a home you want to give up, or get into.  Be realistic about the selling price!  And as a buyer, don’t overpay for a house you “just have to have.”  Don’t buy more home than you can really afford…  Read and understand the impact of the loan terms that you are accepting!  That is what many people forgot in recent years.  And yes, get a fixed rate mortgage… rates are still quite low today by historical standards and you won’t get in over your head.  I paid on a mortgage for years at 8-9% and thought that was pretty good.  I also paid off a truck loan in the mid 1980’s at 12.5% interest.  Sounds ridiculous now, but it was pretty good at the time!

3.  Did you purchase an investment property to try and flip it and make money?  If the answer is yes, then you are probably moving as quickly as you can to sell that home, even taking a loss if your situation dictates.  Or you can choose to hold on to it… possibly for years.  Nothing wrong with that if you can afford it. I bought a home years ago that I lived in for only a short time.  I planned to sell it but found that I would have lost money after I moved. So I rented… then found that the market prices didn’t change for many more years and still I refused to sell it.  Stubbornly I rented out that home for years, often taking losses and wondering how I got myself into that mess, even refinancing three times.  There were some positive tax advantages over time that surprised me.  And eventually the market turned and I sold quickly for a nice profit.  Some say I was lucky.  Maybe so… but if I was lucky, then it took over 13 years to get there.  Looking back I’m glad I stuck it out and went through the experience. 

My view of the real-estate market is that we will go through a sustained period of level and falling real-estate values until the markets can adjust naturally through the local and national economic cycles.  Areas of high unemployment will be hit pretty hard for standard economic reasons.  So for me that means 3-4 years from now until we see positive trends as population and economic growth absorbs the fallout.  But I’m also an optimist… I believe both the U.S. national and global economy will be much stronger over the next decade.  Corrections during the process?  Absolutely, and maybe even dramatic.  Depression?  No.  Ben Stein has it right in his recent article The Long and Short of Down-Market Investing.  Of course he’s always been one of my heroes.  Some folks think his views are too simplistic.  But you know what?  America needs people, economists especially, who can put things in plain language and provide a little perspective.

Here’s a few more recent headlines on the mortgage and real-estate frenzy.  I’m sure there will be more to come.

• Fingers Pointed Over Mortgage Meltdown
• Subprime Shakeout Threatens Specialists
• Countrywide Financial… Foreclosures could rise 10%
• Mortgage Confusion Costing Homeowners

I would really like to hear your perspectives on this…  and real-life experience if possible.  Do you see a crash coming?  Is the tsunami here?  Or is it a slow drizzle of falling valuations for the next few years?

No comment - Post a comment

« Polishing Apples and Inheritances | Quick Trip to Euroland »